Shoppers hoping for relief at the grocery store are finding a frustrating reality; While wholesale egg prices have dropped nearly 40% and feed costs have fallen significantly, retail prices remain stubbornly high. Despite the easing of supply chain pressures and the slow recovery of egg-laying flocks, grocery stores have yet to pass these savings on to consumers.
This isn’t unusual. After inflationary spikes, businesses often keep prices elevated even when their costs decline. Eggs, like many other essential groceries, may have reached a “new normal” where prices stabilize at higher levels rather than returning to what consumers once paid. With strategic pricing, seasonal demand, and consumer habits all playing a role, it’s clear that falling costs don’t always translate to cheaper grocery bills.
The Avian Flu Fallout with Egg Prices
The avian flu outbreak of 2022 devastated the U.S. poultry industry, forcing farmers to cull 166 million birds to contain the virus. While this affected both egg-laying hens and meat-producing broiler chickens, the consequences have played out very differently.
Broiler chickens, raised for meat, mature quickly (within six to eight weeks) allowing the industry to rebound swiftly from supply shortages. This explains why chicken breast prices, which once spiked 50%, have now dropped 30% from their highs.
Egg production, however, is another story. Unlike broilers, egg-laying hens take much longer to replace. The process of restocking flocks is measured in months or even years, and until those populations return to pre-flu levels, supply shortages will persist.
At the start of 2025, wholesale egg prices were finally showing signs of relief, dropping nearly 40% as new flocks began replenishing supply. However, grocery store prices have not followed suit. The lag between wholesale and retail pricing is typical in the food industry, but other factors are exacerbating the delay:
- Easter Demand: Egg prices traditionally rise in the lead-up holidays (so many people make meals for Easter weekend). Retailers, aware of seasonal shopping habits, may hold back on price cuts to maximize profits.
- Restaurant Surcharges and Rationing: With eggs still expensive, many restaurants continue to pass higher costs to customers through surcharges or menu price increases. This maintains pressure on overall demand.
- Grocery Store Pricing Strategies: Many supermarkets hesitate to adjust prices too quickly, especially for staple goods like eggs, which have seen extreme volatility. Some may be waiting to ensure the wholesale decline is sustained before adjusting retail prices.
While chicken breast prices have fallen, whole chicken prices have quietly risen by 20%. The shift reflects changing consumer habits. As grocery bills climb across the board, shoppers are seeking more budget-friendly ways to buy protein. Whole chickens, which provide multiple meals at a lower per-pound cost, have become an increasingly attractive option.
The growing preference for whole birds has increased demand, putting upward pressure on prices—despite the lower feed costs that should, in theory, be making poultry cheaper across the board.
What Comes Next?
Even as wholesale egg prices decline, grocery store prices may remain high for the foreseeable future. Historically, businesses are slow to lower prices after inflationary spikes, especially when consumers have already adjusted to paying more. While the worst of the price hikes may be over, it is unlikely that eggs will return to their pre-pandemic costs anytime soon.
Grocery retailers often take a cautious approach to price reductions. Even though feed costs have dropped and egg production is recovering, stores may wait to see if these trends hold before adjusting prices. With Easter approaching, demand is expected to rise, giving retailers little reason to lower prices right now. After the holiday, they may gradually reduce prices, but a full return to pre-2022 levels is unlikely.
Lower feed costs should, in theory, lead to lower poultry prices, but supply chain realities and strategic pricing decisions have slowed that process. While broiler chickens rebounded quickly due to their short production cycle, egg-laying hens take much longer to replace. Until flock sizes return to pre-flu levels, the supply shortage will keep egg prices elevated.
Sticky Grocery Prices
Beyond supply constraints, there is also the issue of "sticky prices." After periods of inflation, companies often resist lowering prices even when costs decline. If consumers continue buying eggs at higher prices, grocery stores have little incentive to cut them. Instead, they may focus on slowing future price increases rather than rolling back past hikes.
For now, shoppers may need to manage expectations. Eggs may not see significant price relief until much later in 2025, if at all. As retailers prioritize maintaining profit margins over immediate price reductions, consumers looking to cut costs might need to consider alternatives like egg substitutes or bulk purchasing when prices dip. Lower feed costs may help stabilize the market, but meaningful savings at the checkout will take time... if they come at all.
If you make your own food to keep costs down, consider a few of these chicken recipes:
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